US revamps H1B visa program, new rules and no more lottery system

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• published: 30 Apr 2017
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USCIS will begin accepting petitions for the H1b visa 2018 season by April 1st 2017. We track the Labor Condition Application (LCA) data from the Department of Labor (DOL). Data already indicates that this year is going to be another high demand year and hence a H1b lottery. Here are the important details. H1b News: USCIS announced that the lottery has been performed for the new H1b application on April 11th. USICS announced H1b 2018 cap reached. Unlike last year no mention of lottery or actual numbers. And the announcement seems to have come sooner compared to previous years! For the last 3 years there has been an overwhelming demand for the 85,000 visas slots available. Filing LCA is the first step before applying for the H1b. Hence, tracking LCA data can give insight into the number of expected H1b petitions for the cap. LCA data indicates strong start to this year’s season and compares to the last 2 years. USCIS 2018 H1b lottery is inevitable. The question is what are the odds of getting selected in the lottery? The higher the demand, the lesser the chances. That one is obvious. So, without further ado here is what we think. LCA data upto this point indicates, 2015 and 2016 H1b lottery involved 230,000 and 236,000 petitions respectively. The above graph compares the LCAs decisions announced by DOL by March 3rd of the respective years. As you can see above, 2018 LCAs are roughly inline with the last 2 years. Hence, if the 2018 numbers continue to trend like the last 2 years, the projection for final H1b petitions is around 230,000 petitions. As more data becomes available in the upcoming weeks, the projections might change. This season is different from the last years because of the new president Trump. H1b also took a center stage during the campaign. So, the future of H1b program is uncertain. Already may bills are in the works in Congress. Economy in general has been robust and unemployment rates at the lowest. Given all these, employers may want to take one last swing at the available opportunity. That may lead to increased H1b demand this year. But, on the other hand, with H1b under lots of scrutiny, H1b sponsoring employers may choose to play a wait and watch game. Traditionally, the so called outsourcing companies have depended on the H1b visas. They may tweak their business model to rely less on H1b visas. We are already seeing signs of it. Last month, a top executive of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) a top H1b consumer indicated that they are preparing to operate in a visa constrained environment. He also revealed that TCS already reduced their H1b petitions even last year.